Switzerland
Federal Office of Transport: 2050 Rail Perspective, doubling the share of rail in passenger transport
The Swiss Federal Office of Transport is developing the 2050 Rail Perspective, which is to serve as the basis for the next 2040/45 Expansion Step. Core principles were formulated as a basis for this, and which were then examined for their effect in separate studies. One of the core principles is “In passenger transport, the share of rail will double”. Based on this principle, SMA investigated how high the potential shift from road to rail would be based solely on actions to improve the rail offer, which features would have to be improved and to what extent, and what effects the achievement of the core principle would have on the rail system overall.
In the first phase, the theoretical shift potential to rail was investigated. The potential was distinguished according to transport segments and according to the service characteristics that can be influenced by public transport, e.g. service density, frequency of transfer and travel time. The basis for these assessments was the data of the current national passenger transport model. Using a logit approach, the change in the modal choice of the entire transport demand (approximately 50 million origin-destination pairs were in the data set) could be calculated by changing public transport resistance factors, and thus the required improvements to the public transport offer could be quantified.
In the second phase, timetable concepts were planned in scenarios in which the service improvements necessary for the transfer were either partially or fully implemented. The extensive changes in frequency, direct connections and travel time reductions would result in major infrastructure upgrade requirements. The additional costs for regional passenger transport were then determined, and the corresponding values from the sample network were projected onto the entire Swiss rail network with the aid of a tool.
The findings of the study on the modal shift effect and the cost of service improvements will help the FOT to specify the priorities for the 2050 rail strategy.